Practice Playbook · Economics
The 5-Year Financial Arc
The reason to build a dry eye program deliberately is what it looks like in year five, not year one. Because the recurring layer compounds, a steady stream of treated patients becomes a base that keeps paying. This is an illustrative model of that arc, built from assumptions you can change.
Key Takeaways
- The value is in the compounding. Each year of treated patients adds to a base that carries forward.
- Year one is the smallest year. The arc bends upward as retained patients stack on top of new ones.
- In an illustrative model, a modest steady intake builds toward a low-seven-figure five-year total.
- Retention is the lever. Small changes in how many patients stay on therapy move the five-year number a lot.
- These are illustrative figures from stated assumptions, not projections of your results. Use the calculator for your own.
Quick Answer
Because the recurring layer repeats, treated patients accumulate into a growing base rather than resetting each year. In an illustrative model, adding around 100 engaged patients a year at roughly $1,950 of recurring value each, with about 80 percent staying on year over year, the active base and the revenue climb steadily and the five-year total lands in the low seven figures. The single biggest lever is retention. The table below shows the shape; your numbers will differ, which is what the calculator is for.
The Illustrative Arc
Assumptions: about 100 engaged patients added per year, roughly $1,950 recurring value per patient per year, and about 80 percent year-over-year retention. Rounded and illustrative only.
| Year | Active patient base | Illustrative recurring revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | ~100 | ~$195,000 |
| Year 2 | ~180 | ~$351,000 |
| Year 3 | ~244 | ~$476,000 |
| Year 4 | ~295 | ~$575,000 |
| Year 5 | ~336 | ~$655,000 |
| 5-year cumulative | ~$2.25 million |
Dry eye is chronic and managed over the long term (TFOS DEWS III), which is precisely why a treated patient base persists and compounds rather than turning over each year. The figures above are an illustration from the stated assumptions, not a forecast of any practice's results.
What Moves the Five-Year Number
Biggest lever
Retention
How many patients stay on therapy year over year. Auto-ship is the tool that protects it.
Intake
New Patients Per Year
How many engaged patients you add. Screening every exam is what feeds this.
Value
Recurring Value Each
The annual recurring spend per patient, driven by regimen breadth and adherence.
See the Arc on Your Own Numbers
The RescueLink ROI Calculator runs this same model on your inputs, your intake, capture, recurring value, and retention, so you can see the arc for your office instead of an illustration. Activate RescueLink to turn on the recurring layer that drives it.
DER Clinical Pearl
If you want a bigger year-five number, work on retention before intake. Adding patients who lapse is running to stand still. Keeping the ones you have on therapy, through auto-ship and follow-up, is what actually bends the arc upward.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does year one look small?
Because the base has not built yet. The arc bends upward in later years as retained patients accumulate on top of each year's new ones.
Is the five-year total a projection for my practice?
No. It is an illustration from the stated assumptions. Your intake, retention, and recurring value will produce a different number.
What assumptions drive the table?
About 100 engaged patients added per year, roughly $1,950 recurring value each, and about 80 percent year-over-year retention. Change any of these and the arc changes.
Which lever matters most?
Retention. Small improvements in how many patients stay on therapy move the five-year total more than equivalent changes in intake.
How do I improve retention?
Auto-ship and consistent follow-up. Removing the refill decision is the single most effective step.
Does this include in-office procedure revenue?
No. The arc models only the recurring product layer. Procedures would be additional, and vary by payer and setting.
How do I model my own arc?
Use the ROI Calculator and enter your own inputs. It runs this same compounding model on your numbers.
Where can I get help with the model?
Reach providers@dryeyerescue.com or (561) 468-8747 to talk through the arc for your practice.
Build for Year Five
Browse the catalog to equip the program, or activate RescueLink to turn on the recurring layer that makes the arc compound.
Continue through the Dry Eye Practice Playbook
Part of the Dry Eye Practice Playbook. All figures are illustrative models from stated assumptions, not projections, guarantees, or financial advice. Actual results depend on your patient base, pricing, retention, and execution. Dry Eye Rescue is a distributor of medical supplies and over-the-counter products.